Mid-Atlantic States

New York

Local Expert:
Dr. Mark Monmonier
Syracuse University
315-443-2605
mon2ier@maxwell.syr.edu

Download the New York fact sheet. (PDF)

Verbatim Excerpts from the Latest EPA Report on the Effects of Sea-level Rise on the Mid-Atlantic States (page numbers for each passage in parentheses)

Highlights:

Many coastal areas in the United States will experience an increased frequency and magnitude of storm-surge flooding and coastal erosion due to storms over the next century, in response to sea-level rise. (537)

In the mid-Atlantic, between approximately 900,000 and 3,400,000 people (between 3 and 10 percent of the total population in the mid-Atlantic coastal region) live on parcels of land or city blocks with at least some land less than one meter above the monthly highest tides. (331)

Rising sea level, combined with the possibility of an increase in the number of hurricanes and other severe weather related incidents, could cause increased inundation and more frequent flooding of roads, railroads, and airports, and could have major consequences for port facilities and coastal shipping. (357)

Seawalls, bulkheads, dikes, sewers and drainage systems are designed based on the waves, water levels and rainfall experienced in the past. If conditions exceed what the designers expect disaster can result _ especially when sea level rises above the level of the land surface. (314)

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Some low-lying railroads, tunnels, ports, runways, and roads are already vulnerable to flooding and a rising sea level will only exacerbate the situation by causing more frequent and more serious disruption of transportation services. (354)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

New York Metropolitan Area:

Given its large population, the effects of hurricanes and other major storms combined with higher sea levels could be particularly severe in the New York metropolitan area. With much of the area’s transportation infrastructure at low elevation (most at 3 meters or less) even slight increases in the height of flooding could cause extensive damage and bring the thriving city to a relative standstill until the flood waters recede. (598-599)

Long Island:
Since nearly all of the Long Island Sound shoreline is densely populated and highly developed, the land may be armored in response to sea-level rise, raising the potential for beach loss. (588)

Shallow water habitats are a major ecological feature in and around the Peconic Estuary (east end of Long Island). Eelgrass beds provide food, shelter, and nursery habitats to diverse species, including worms, shrimp, scallops and other bivalves, crabs and fish. (589)

(Along Long Island’s south shore) … numerous wildlife species could be affected by salt marsh loss. … Several species that are already showing significant declines, including clapper rail, sharp-tailed sparrow, seaside sparrow, willet and marsh wren. (590)

The back-barrier beaches of the South Shore also provide nesting sites for the endangered roseate tern and horseshoe crabs. (591)

Infrastructure Impacts:

Sea level rise poses a risk to transportation in ensuring reliable and sustained transportation services. (354)

With a substantial acceleration of sea-level rise, traditional coastal engineering may not be economically or environmentally sustainable in some areas. (28)

Sea-level rise may also exacerbate pollution through inundation of upland sources of contamination such as landfills, industrial storage areas, or agricultural waste retention ponds. (240)

One impact of sea-level rise not generally mentioned is the decreased clearance under bridges. (355)

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Ecosystem Impacts:

Today, rising sea levels are submerging low-lying lands, eroding beaches, converting wetlands to open water, exacerbating coastal flooding, and increasing the salinity of estuaries and freshwater aquifers. (22)

Most coastal landforms in the U.S. will undergo large changes in shape and location if the rate of sea-level rise increases as predicted. (536)

Terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals that rely on coastal habitat are likely to be stressed and adversely affected as sea level rises. (26)

Sea-level rise will have profound effects by increasing flooding frequency and inundating low-lying coastal areas … coastal landforms such as barrier islands and wetlands may have thresholds or tipping points from sea-level rise and storms, leading to rapid and irreversible change. (39-40)

Flooding of low-lying regions by storm surges and spring tides is becoming more frequent. (60)

Wetland losses are occurring, fringe forests are dying and being converted to marsh, farm land and lawns are being converted to marsh, and some roads and urban centers in low elevation areas are more frequently flooded during spring high tides. (60)

Degradation and loss of tidal marshes will affect fish and shellfish production in both the marshes themselves and adjacent estuaries. (263)

Some barrier island coasts and wetlands may cross thresholds and undergo significant and irreversible changes. (537)

Erosion:

Nationally, coastal erosion will probably increase because of sea-level rise at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (23)

Along the shores of the mid-Atlantic, which are comprised of headlands, barrier islands, and spits, it is virtually certain that erosion will dominate changes in shoreline position in response to sea-level rise and storms over the next century. (140)

More portions of the open coast of the United States will be subject to significant physical changes and erosion over the next century because the majority of coastlines consist of sandy beaches, which are highly mobile and in a continual state of change. (143)

If coastal erosion is gradual, one often sees a type of coastal blight in what would otherwise be a desirable community, with exposed septic tanks and abandoned homes standing on the beach, and piles of rocks or geotextile sand bags in front of homes that remain occupied. (312)

Increased shore erosion can further increase flood damages by removing protective dunes, beaches, and wetlands, thus leaving previously protected properties closer to the water’s edge. (384)

Portions of the U.S. ocean coast are likely to undergo long-term overall erosion, at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (540)

Preparedness:

The interdependence of decisions made by property-owners and federal, state and local governments creates an institutional inertia that currently impedes preparing for sea-level rise. (494)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

About the Region:

Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, three (New York, Washington D.C. and Philadelphia) are located in the coastal zone of the mid-Atlantic region. (334)

This region has approximately 1,100 kilometers (almost 700 miles) of shoreline along the Atlantic Ocean. Almost half of this coastline consists of ocean beach resorts with dense development and high property values. (304)

In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonal or vacation homes in coastal counties. (333)

About Sea Level Rise:

How people respond to sea-level rise in the coastal zone will have potentially large economic and environmental costs. (19)

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global sea level will likely rise between 19 and 59 centimeters (7 and 23 inches) by the end of the century. (20-21)

(More recent research that accounts for rapid ice sheet melting that’s been observed puts the numbers substantially higher. A comprehensive assessment report conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and released last month by the White House estimates sea level rise at 50-140 centimeters or 1.64-4.59 feet by 2100. See page 24 at http://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap3-4/sap3-4-final-report-all.pdf)

Sea-level rise is one of the impacts of climate change that will affect all coastal regions of the United States over the next century and beyond. (548)

New Jersey

Local Expert:
Elaine Makatura
elaine.makatura@dep.state.nj.us
609-292-2994

Download the New Jersey fact sheet. (PDF)

Verbatim Excerpts from the Latest EPA Report on the Effects of Sea-level Rise on the Mid-Atlantic States (page numbers for each passage in parentheses)

Highlights:

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

Neither Delaware nor New Jersey has specifically altered their activities because of projected sea-level rise. (486)

New Jersey Shore:

As sea level rises, and marshes along hardened shorelines convert to open water, marsh fishes will lose access to these marsh features and the protection from predators, nursery habitat, and foraging areas provided by the marsh. Loss of marsh area would also have negative implications for the dozens of bird species that forage and nest in the region’s marshes. (607-608)

Eventually, complete conversion of marsh to open water will affect the hundreds of thousands of shorebirds that stop in these areas to feed during their migrations. (608)

Delaware Estuary (affecting Delaware and New Jersey):

Recent research indicates that 50 to 60 percent of Delaware Bay’s tidal marsh has been degraded, primarily because the surface of the marshes is not rising as fast as the sea. (619)

On both sides of Delaware Bay, most shores are either tidal wetlands or sandy beaches with tidal wetlands immediately behind them. … Although these communities are potentially vulnerable to inundation, shoreline erosion has been an immediate threat. (619)

Infrastructure Impacts:

Sea level rise poses a risk to transportation in ensuring reliable and sustained transportation services. (354)

With a substantial acceleration of sea-level rise, traditional coastal engineering may not be economically or environmentally sustainable in some areas. (28)

Sea-level rise may also exacerbate pollution through inundation of upland sources of contamination such as landfills, industrial storage areas, or agricultural waste retention ponds. (240)

One impact of sea-level rise not generally mentioned is the decreased clearance under bridges. (355)

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Ecosystem Impacts:

Where tidal marshes become submerged or are eroded, the expected overall loss of wetlands would cause wetland-dependent species of fish and birds to have reduced population sizes. Tidal marshes … are important spawning, nursery and shelter areas for fish and shellfish, including commercially important species like blue crab. (237-238)

Most coastal landforms in the U.S. will undergo large changes in shape and location if the rate of sea-level rise increases as predicted. (536)

Terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals that rely on coastal habitat are likely to be stressed and adversely affected as sea level rises. (26)

It is virtually certain that tidal wetlands are already experiencing submergence by sea-level rise and associated high rates of loss (eg. Blackwater River marshes in Maryland) will continue to lose area in response to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise. (188)

Flooding of low-lying regions by storm surges and spring tides is becoming more frequent. (60)

Degradation and loss of tidal marshes will affect fish and shellfish production in both the marshes themselves and adjacent estuaries. (263)

Some barrier island coasts and wetlands may cross thresholds and undergo significant and irreversible changes. (537)

Salination:

“Ghost forests” of standing dead trees killed by saltwater intrusion are becoming increasingly common in southern New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana and North Carolina. (60)

Rising sea level is causing saltwater intrusion into estuaries and threatening freshwater resources in some parts of the mid-Atlantic region. (60)

Erosion:

Nationally, coastal erosion will probably increase because of sea-level rise at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (23)

Increased shore erosion can further increase flood damages by removing protective dunes, beaches, and wetlands, thus leaving previously protected properties closer to the water’s edge. (384)

Portions of the U.S. ocean coast are likely to undergo long-term overall erosion, at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (540)

Preparedness:

Neither Delaware nor New Jersey has specifically altered their activities because of projected sea-level rise. (486)

The interdependence of decisions made by property-owners and federal, state and local governments creates an institutional inertia that currently impedes preparing for sea-level rise. (494)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

About the Region:

Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, three (New York, Washington D.C. and Philadelphia) are located in the coastal zone of the mid-Atlantic region. (334)

In the United States, 14 of the 20 largest urban centers are located within 100 km of the coast and less than 10 m above sea level. Using 2000 census data … approximately 126 million people resided in coastal areas. (44)

In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonal or vacation homes in coastal counties. (333)

About Sea Level Rise:

How people respond to sea-level rise in the coastal zone will have potentially large economic and environmental costs. (19)

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global sea level will likely rise between 19 and 59 centimeters (7 and 23 inches) by the end of the century. (20-21)

Sea-level rise is one of the impacts of climate change that will affect all coastal regions of the United States over the next century and beyond. (548)

Delaware

Local Expert:
Dave Carter
david.carter@state.de.us
302-739-9283

Download the Delaware fact sheet. (PDF)

Verbatim Excerpts from the Latest EPA Report on the Effects of Sea-level Rise on the Mid-Atlantic States (page numbers for each passage in parentheses)

Highlights:

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

Neither Delaware nor New Jersey has specifically altered their activities because of projected sea-level rise. (486)

Delaware Estuary (affecting Delaware and New Jersey):

Recent research indicates that 50 to 60 percent of Delaware Bay’s tidal marsh has been degraded, primarily because the surface of the marshes is not rising as fast as the sea. (619)

The Atlantic Coast of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware:

Loss of beach habitat due to sea-level rise and erosion below protective structures could have a number of negative consequences for species that use these beaches. (639)

While shore protection is currently more of a priority along the Atlantic Coast, preventing the inundation of low-lying lands may eventually be necessary, as well. (643)

The marsh islands of the coastal bays are undergoing rapid erosion; for example, Big Piney Island in Rehoboth Bay (Delaware) experienced erosion rates of 10 meters (30 feet) per year between 1968 and 1981 and is now gone. (638)

Chesapeake Bay (Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, D.C.)

Many marsh islands along the mid-Atlantic, and particularly Chesapeake Bay, have already been lost or severely reduced as a result of lateral erosion and flooding related to sea level rise. (264)

Current approaches would not protect wetlands for future generations if sea level rises beyond the ability of wetlands to accrete, which is likely for most of Chesapeake Bay’s wetlands if sea level rises 50 centimeters in the next century, and for most of the mid-Atlantic if sea level rises 100 centimeters. (443)

Unnourished beaches and tidal flats of the Lower Potomac are likely to erode as sea levels rise. (655)

A range of sea-level rise impacts are possible along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, including potential loss of key habitats. (662)

Virtually all of the beaches along Chesapeake Bay are eroding. (671)

Infrastructure Impacts:

Sea level rise poses a risk to transportation in ensuring reliable and sustained transportation services. (354)

With a substantial acceleration of sea-level rise, traditional coastal engineering may not be economically or environmentally sustainable in some areas. (28)

Sea-level rise may also exacerbate pollution through inundation of upland sources of contamination such as landfills, industrial storage areas, or agricultural waste retention ponds. (240)

One impact of sea-level rise not generally mentioned is the decreased clearance under bridges. (355)

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Ecosystem Impacts:

Most coastal landforms in the U.S. will undergo large changes in shape and location if the rate of sea-level rise increases as predicted. (536)

Terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals that rely on coastal habitat are likely to be stressed and adversely affected as sea level rises. (26)

It is virtually certain that the United States will continue to lose tidal wetlands, partly in response to future sea-level rise and other climate and environmental drivers, such as changing temperatures, changes in precipitation and runoff, and storm frequency and intensity. (25)

Flooding of low-lying regions by storm surges and spring tides is becoming more frequent. (60)

Degradation and loss of tidal marshes will affect fish and shellfish production in both the marshes themselves and adjacent estuaries. (263)

Some barrier island coasts and wetlands may cross thresholds and undergo significant and irreversible changes. (537)

Erosion:

Nationally, coastal erosion will probably increase because of sea-level rise at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (23)

Increased shore erosion can further increase flood damages by removing protective dunes, beaches, and wetlands, thus leaving previously protected properties closer to the water’s edge. (384)

Portions of the U.S. ocean coast are likely to undergo long-term overall erosion, at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (540)

Preparedness:

Neither Delaware nor New Jersey has specifically altered their activities because of projected sea-level rise. (486)

The interdependence of decisions made by property-owners and federal, state and local governments creates an institutional inertia that currently impedes preparing for sea-level rise. (494)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

About the Region:

Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, three (New York, Washington D.C. and Philadelphia) are located in the coastal zone of the mid-Atlantic region. (334)

In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonal or vacation homes in coastal counties. (333)

About Sea Level Rise:

How people respond to sea-level rise in the coastal zone will have potentially large economic and environmental costs. (19)

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global sea level will likely rise between 19 and 59 centimeters (7 and 23 inches) by the end of the century. (20-21)

Sea-level rise is one of the impacts of climate change that will affect all coastal regions of the United States over the next century and beyond. (548)

Maryland

Local Expert:
Dr. Donald Boesch
University of Maryland Center for Environmental
Science
410-221-2000
boesch@umces.edu

Zoë Johnson
zjohnson@dnr.state.md.us
(410) 260-8741

Download the Maryland fact sheet. (PDF)

Verbatim Excerpts from the Latest EPA Report on the Effects of Sea-level Rise on the Mid-Atlantic States (page numbers for each passage in parentheses)

Highlights:

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

Neither Maryland nor Virginia has adopted a comprehensive policy to explicitly address the consequences of rising sea level. (675)

The Atlantic Coast of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware:

Loss of beach habitat due to sea-level rise and erosion below protective structures could have a number of negative consequences for species that use these beaches. (639)

While shore protection is currently more of a priority along the Atlantic Coast, preventing the inundation of low-lying lands may eventually be necessary, as well. (643)

Chesapeake Bay (Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, D.C.)

Many marsh islands along the mid-Atlantic, and particularly Chesapeake Bay, have already been lost or severely reduced as a result of lateral erosion and flooding related to sea level rise. (264)

Unnourished beaches and tidal flats of the Lower Potomac are likely to erode as sea levels rise. (655)

A range of sea-level rise impacts are possible along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, including potential loss of key habitats. (662)

Virtually all of the beaches along Chesapeake Bay are eroding. (671)

Infrastructure Impacts:

Sea level rise poses a risk to transportation in ensuring reliable and sustained transportation services. (354)

With a substantial acceleration of sea-level rise, traditional coastal engineering may not be economically or environmentally sustainable in some areas. (28)

Sea-level rise may also exacerbate pollution through inundation of upland sources of contamination such as landfills, industrial storage areas, or agricultural waste retention ponds. (240)

One impact of sea-level rise not generally mentioned is the decreased clearance under bridges. (355)

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Ecosystem Impacts:

Most coastal landforms in the U.S. will undergo large changes in shape and location if the rate of sea-level rise increases as predicted. (536)

Terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals that rely on coastal habitat are likely to be stressed and adversely affected as sea level rises. (26)

Flooding of low-lying regions by storm surges and spring tides is becoming more frequent. (60)

Degradation and loss of tidal marshes will affect fish and shellfish production in both the marshes themselves and adjacent estuaries. (263)

Some barrier island coasts and wetlands may cross thresholds and undergo significant and irreversible changes. (537)

Salination:

“Ghost forests” of standing dead trees killed by saltwater intrusion are becoming increasingly common in southern New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana and North Carolina. (60)

Rising sea level is causing saltwater intrusion into estuaries and threatening freshwater resources in some parts of the mid-Atlantic region. (60)

Erosion:

Nationally, coastal erosion will probably increase because of sea-level rise at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (23)

Increased shore erosion can further increase flood damages by removing protective dunes, beaches, and wetlands, thus leaving previously protected properties closer to the water’s edge. (384)

Portions of the U.S. ocean coast are likely to undergo long-term overall erosion, at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (540)

Preparedness:

Neither Maryland nor Virginia has adopted a comprehensive policy to explicitly address the consequences of rising sea level. (675)

The interdependence of decisions made by property-owners and federal, state and local governments creates an institutional inertia that currently impedes preparing for sea-level rise. (494)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

About the Region:

Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, three (New York, Washington D.C. and Philadelphia) are located in the coastal zone of the mid-Atlantic region. (334)

In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonal or vacation homes in coastal counties. (333)

About Sea Level Rise:

How people respond to sea-level rise in the coastal zone will have potentially large economic and environmental costs. (19)

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global sea level will likely rise between 19 and 59 centimeters (7 and 23 inches) by the end of the century. (20-21)

Sea-level rise is one of the impacts of climate change that will affect all coastal regions of the United States over the next century and beyond. (548)

District of Columbia

Local Expert:
Zoë Johnson
zjohnson@dnr.state.md.us
(410) 260-8741

Download the Washington, DC fact sheet. (PDF)

Verbatim Excerpts from the Latest EPA Report on the Effects of Sea-level Rise on the Mid-Atlantic States (page numbers for each passage in parentheses)

Highlights:

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

Chesapeake Bay (Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, D.C.):

Many marsh islands along the mid-Atlantic, and particularly Chesapeake Bay, have already been lost or severely reduced as a result of lateral erosion and flooding related to sea level rise. (264)

Unnourished beaches and tidal flats of the Lower Potomac are likely to erode as sea levels rise. (655)

A range of sea-level rise impacts are possible along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, including potential loss of key habitats. (662)

Virtually all of the beaches along Chesapeake Bay are eroding. (671)

Infrastructure Impacts:

Washington, D.C. shows the greatest vulnerability on a percentage basis for both interstates and National Highway System roads for all sea-level rise scenarios examined. (362)

Sea level rise poses a risk to transportation in ensuring reliable and sustained transportation services. (354)

With a substantial acceleration of sea-level rise, traditional coastal engineering may not be economically or environmentally sustainable in some areas. (28)

Sea-level rise may also exacerbate pollution through inundation of upland sources of contamination such as landfills, industrial storage areas, or agricultural waste retention ponds. (240)

One impact of sea-level rise not generally mentioned is the decreased clearance under bridges. (355)

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Ecosystem Impacts:

The Washington, D.C. area features sensitive wetland habitats potentially vulnerable to sea-level rise. (657)

Most coastal landforms in the U.S. will undergo large changes in shape and location if the rate of sea-level rise increases as predicted. (536)

Terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals that rely on coastal habitat are likely to be stressed and adversely affected as sea level rises. (26)

Flooding of low-lying regions by storm surges and spring tides is becoming more frequent. (60)

Degradation and loss of tidal marshes will affect fish and shellfish production in both the marshes themselves and adjacent estuaries. (263)

Some barrier island coasts and wetlands may cross thresholds and undergo significant and irreversible changes. (537)

Erosion:

Nationally, coastal erosion will probably increase because of sea-level rise at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (23)

Increased shore erosion can further increase flood damages by removing protective dunes, beaches, and wetlands, thus leaving previously protected properties closer to the water’s edge. (384)

Portions of the U.S. ocean coast are likely to undergo long-term overall erosion, at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (540)

Preparedness:

The interdependence of decisions made by property-owners and federal, state and local governments creates an institutional inertia that currently impedes preparing for sea-level rise. (494)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

About the Region:

Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, three (New York, Washington D.C. and Philadelphia) are located in the coastal zone of the mid-Atlantic region. (334)

In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonal or vacation homes in coastal counties. (333)

About Sea Level Rise:

How people respond to sea-level rise in the coastal zone will have potentially large economic and environmental costs. (19)

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global sea level will likely rise between 19 and 59 centimeters (7 and 23 inches) by the end of the century. (20-21)

Sea-level rise is one of the impacts of climate change that will affect all coastal regions of the United States over the next century and beyond. (548)

Virginia

Local Expert:
Dr. Carl Hershner
Virginia Institute of Marine Science
804-684-7387
carl@vims.edu

Download the Virginia fact sheet. (PDF)

Verbatim Excerpts from the Latest EPA Report on the Effects of Sea-level Rise on the Mid-Atlantic States (page numbers for each passage in parentheses)

Highlights:

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

Neither Maryland nor Virginia has adopted a comprehensive policy to explicitly address the consequences of rising sea level. (675)

The Atlantic Coast of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware:

Loss of beach habitat due to sea-level rise and erosion below protective structures could have a number of negative consequences for species that use these beaches. (639)

While shore protection is currently more of a priority along the Atlantic Coast, preventing the inundation of low-lying lands may eventually be necessary, as well. (643)
The marsh islands of the coastal bays are undergoing rapid erosion; for example, Big Piney Island in Rehoboth Bay (Delaware) experienced erosion rates of 10 meters (30 feet) per year between 1968 and 1981 and is now gone. (638)

Chesapeake Bay (Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, D.C.)

Re: the Virginia side of the Potomac River
Many coastal homes are along bluffs, some of which are eroding. Lewisetta is one of the larger vulnerable communities along the Potomac. … With a fairly modest rise in sea level, one could predict that wetlands may begin to take over portions of people’s yards. (652)

Many marsh islands along the mid-Atlantic, and particularly Chesapeake Bay, have already been lost or severely reduced as a result of lateral erosion and flooding related to sea level rise. (264)

Unnourished beaches and tidal flats of the Lower Potomac are likely to erode as sea levels rise. (655)

A range of sea-level rise impacts are possible along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, including potential loss of key habitats. (662)

Virtually all of the beaches along Chesapeake Bay are eroding. (671)

Infrastructure Impacts:

Sea level rise poses a risk to transportation in ensuring reliable and sustained transportation services. (354)

With a substantial acceleration of sea-level rise, traditional coastal engineering may not be economically or environmentally sustainable in some areas. (28)

Sea-level rise may also exacerbate pollution through inundation of upland sources of contamination such as landfills, industrial storage areas, or agricultural waste retention ponds. (240)

One impact of sea-level rise not generally mentioned is the decreased clearance under bridges. (355)

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Ecosystem Impacts:

Most coastal landforms in the U.S. will undergo large changes in shape and location if the rate of sea-level rise increases as predicted. (536)

Terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals that rely on coastal habitat are likely to be stressed and adversely affected as sea level rises. (26)

Flooding of low-lying regions by storm surges and spring tides is becoming more frequent. (60)

Degradation and loss of tidal marshes will affect fish and shellfish production in both the marshes themselves and adjacent estuaries. (263)

Some barrier island coasts and wetlands may cross thresholds and undergo significant and irreversible changes. (537)

Salination:

“Ghost forests” of standing dead trees killed by saltwater intrusion are becoming increasingly common in southern New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana and North Carolina. (60)

Rising sea level is causing saltwater intrusion into estuaries and threatening freshwater resources in some parts of the mid-Atlantic region. (60)

Erosion:

Nationally, coastal erosion will probably increase because of sea-level rise at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (23)

Increased shore erosion can further increase flood damages by removing protective dunes, beaches, and wetlands, thus leaving previously protected properties closer to the water’s edge. (384)

Portions of the U.S. ocean coast are likely to undergo long-term overall erosion, at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (540)

Preparedness:

The interdependence of decisions made by property-owners and federal, state and local governments creates an institutional inertia that currently impedes preparing for sea-level rise. (494)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

About the Region:

Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, three (New York, Washington D.C. and Philadelphia) are located in the coastal zone of the mid-Atlantic region. (334)

In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonal or vacation homes in coastal counties. (333)

About Sea Level Rise:

How people respond to sea-level rise in the coastal zone will have potentially large economic and environmental costs. (19)

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global sea level will likely rise between 19 and 59 centimeters (7 and 23 inches) by the end of the century. (20-21)

Sea-level rise is one of the impacts of climate change that will affect all coastal regions of the United States over the next century and beyond. (548)

North Carolina

Local Experts:
Greg “Rudi” Rudolph
Carteret County Shore Protection Office
252-393-2663
grudolph@protectthebeach.com

Dr. Mark Brinson
East Carolina University
252-328-6307
brinsonm@ecu.edu

Sam Pearsall
Environmental Defence Fund
spearsall@edf.org
919-881-2938

Download the North Carolina fact sheet. (PDF)

Verbatim Excerpts from the Latest EPA Report on the Effects of Sea-level Rise on the Mid-Atlantic States (page numbers for each passage in parentheses)

Highlights:

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

North Carolina:

North Carolina appears slightly more vulnerable to regular inundation due to sea-level rise, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the state highways. (362)

North Carolina receives the highest wave energy along the entire east coast of the United States. … The coast of North Carolina has shifted significantly over time due to storms, waves, tides, currents, rising sea level and other natural and human activities. (691)

One analysis of statewide erosions rates over the past 100 years led researchers to estimate that a 1 meter sea-level rise would cause the shore to retreat an average of 88 meters (289 feet). (693)

Some researchers are concerned that the barrier islands themselves may be in jeopardy if sea-level rise accelerates. (694)

Some wetland systems are already at the limit of their ability to vertically keep pace with rising sea level. (694)

Shoreline retreat – caused by “the intimately coupled processes of wave action and rising sea level” – is already eliminating wetlands at a rate of about 3 square kilometers (800 acres) per year. (694)

Infrastructure Impacts:

Sea level rise poses a risk to transportation in ensuring reliable and sustained transportation services. (354)

With a substantial acceleration of sea-level rise, traditional coastal engineering may not be economically or environmentally sustainable in some areas. (28)

Sea-level rise may also exacerbate pollution through inundation of upland sources of contamination such as landfills, industrial storage areas, or agricultural waste retention ponds. (240)

One impact of sea-level rise not generally mentioned is the decreased clearance under bridges. (355)

Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly. (520)

Ecosystem Impacts:

Most coastal landforms in the U.S. will undergo large changes in shape and location if the rate of sea-level rise increases as predicted. (536)

Terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals that rely on coastal habitat are likely to be stressed and adversely affected as sea level rises. (26)

Flooding of low-lying regions by storm surges and spring tides is becoming more frequent. (60)

Degradation and loss of tidal marshes will affect fish and shellfish production in both the marshes themselves and adjacent estuaries. (263)

Some barrier island coasts and wetlands may cross thresholds and undergo significant and irreversible changes. (537)

Salination:

“Ghost forests” of standing dead trees killed by saltwater intrusion are becoming increasingly common in southern New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana and North Carolina. (60)

Rising sea level is causing saltwater intrusion into estuaries and threatening freshwater resources in some parts of the mid-Atlantic region. (60)

Erosion:

Nationally, coastal erosion will probably increase because of sea-level rise at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (23)

Increased shore erosion can further increase flood damages by removing protective dunes, beaches, and wetlands, thus leaving previously protected properties closer to the water’s edge. (384)

Portions of the U.S. ocean coast are likely to undergo long-term overall erosion, at rates higher than those that have been observed over the past century. (540)

Preparedness:

The interdependence of decisions made by property-owners and federal, state and local governments creates an institutional inertia that currently impedes preparing for sea-level rise. (494)

Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials. (495)

About the Region:

Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, three (New York, Washington D.C. and Philadelphia) are located in the coastal zone of the mid-Atlantic region. (334)

In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonal or vacation homes in coastal counties. (333)

About Sea Level Rise:

How people respond to sea-level rise in the coastal zone will have potentially large economic and environmental costs. (19)

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global sea level will likely rise between 19 and 59 centimeters (7 and 23 inches) by the end of the century. (20-21)

Sea-level rise is one of the impacts of climate change that will affect all coastal regions of the United States over the next century and beyond. (548)